LMI and TCS Uncover Climate Risks to F-35, Announce Enhanced Climanomics Platform

Coastal flooding, temperature extremes, and storm damage could significantly disrupt the availability of facilities supporting the F-35 weapon system over the next 30 years, according to a joint analysis by LMI and The Climate Service (TCS).

“One year ago, our LMI-TCS team set out to assess physical climate risks to the F-35’s global support system with unprecedented granularity,” said Audra Upchurch, director of LMI’s infrastructure, energy, and environment practice. “While risks like flooding and storm damage are unsurprising, we accounted for the unique vulnerabilities of each facility’s assets and their criticality to mission success. We’re excited to deliver actionable insights to inform  master planning decisions and infrastructure improvements.”  

Using TCS’ Climanomics® risk analytics platform, LMI examined five military installations that support the F-35: Eglin Air Force Base (AFB) in western Florida; Hill AFB in northern Utah; Luke AFB near Glendale, AZ; Joint Base Langley–Eustis in Hampton, VA; and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni near Yamaguchi, Japan. The installations house 34 mission-critical facilities, such as control towers, flight simulators, fueling infrastructure, and maintenance depots. The effort marked the first use of Climanomics® to assess physical climate risks to government property.

“LMI and TCS have developed a scalable, repeatable, and defensible approach to understanding the effect of long-term climate risk and integrating it across Department of Defense (DoD) programs consistently. The successful implementation of Climanomics® to analyze the F-35 is a promising first step,” said LMI sustainability senior consultant Kelli Canada. “Climanomics® pairs climate-related hazard data with econometric models, enabling us to articulate risks in a mission-centric context that was not previously possible.”

Climanomics® enables climate-risk reporting consistent with the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures framework. The platform furnishes asset- or portfolio-level analysis for physical and transition risk under multiple scenarios for timeframes up to 80 years. Enhanced features include improved risk models to project the costs of transitioning to a low-carbon economy, incorporation of more physical hazards such as tropical cyclones and riverine flooding, and more granular impact pathways analysis, helping users better understand all the ways that climate risks threaten their property. Climanomics® is available to federal customers through LMI’s exclusive partnership with TCS.

“Offering unparalleled speed, increased interoperability, and enhanced analysis, the Climanomics® platform gives users a comprehensive and decision-useful understanding of their climate risk,” said TCS chief operating officer Joseph Lake. “Working alongside LMI’s experts, we are thrilled to give federal agencies the analysis and subject matter expertise they need to craft and implement effective mitigation strategies.”

Climate-related risks have exacted an immense fiscal and operational toll on DoD installations in recent years. In 2018, hurricanes Florence and Michael each resulted in estimated damages of at least $3 billion at Camp Lejeune and associated Marine Corps facilities in North Carolina and Tyndall AFB in Florida, respectively, according to a March 2019 report by the Government Accountability Office.