Managing Planning Assumptions

Project planning always requires addressing uncertainty. When confronted with multiple possible futures, planners must make assumptions about which reality is most likely to be true. This makes assumptions a critical aspect of planning because the assumptions made constrain the available courses of action. Planning assumptions also affect which project risks can be identified.

Unfortunately, project plan reviews in most organizations reveal that the planning assumptions are either erroneously formed, or not recorded at all.

Misstated and unstated assumptions put the plan at risk:

• Unstated assumptions cannot be challenged. A project plan based on fallacious assumptions may fail to meet cost, schedule, or quality targets.
• Unstated and divergent assumptions frequently cause conflict within project teams.
• All planning assumptions involve risks that should be part of the risk management plan. If planning assumptions are misstated or unstated, the risk mitigation strategy is incomplete.
• Assumptions can drive alternative courses of action. If assumptions are not stated, the relevant alternative courses of action are unlikely to be developed.
• Assumptions can help identify critical decision points. Absent managed assumptions, the decision points can come as a surprise and derail the project schedule.

The bigger the project, the more important the assumptions.

The level of risk associated with poorly formed or unstated assumptions rises significantly as project schedule, scope, and complexity increase. The longer the duration of the project, the further into the future the project manager must predict. The greater the scope or complexity of a project, the bigger the team grows and the more complex its communications become. Each team member has assumptions; unless they discuss and document their assumptions, they will likely differ from each other.

Managing Assumptions

Through our performance optimization line of business, LMI integrates assumption management to risk and program management to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of organizations and operations.

Key Points:

• Failing to document an assumption does not mean that an assumption was not made.
• Every assumption has the possibility of being wrong. Realizing that possibility, planners must identify and manage the associated risks.
• Gathering assumptions invariably garners a mix of assumptions, facts, wishes, and other statements. Planners must adjudicate these to identify the assumptions that will impact possible courses of action.
• Assumptions are statements about a possible future. As time goes by, that future becomes clearer, so planners must regularly review assumptions to ensure they remain valid.

Properly identifying and managing planning assumptions is important to any project, and the criticality of these tasks escalates as project complexity increases. The project manager who can identify and manage planning assumptions can avert potential disaster and improve the likelihood that a project succeeds.

If your organization is seeking to better manage planning assumptions and integrate them with risk management, LMI’s team of project and portfolio management (PPM) subject matter experts can help. For more information, please contact LMI’s program planning and investment management (PP&IM) sub-service line vice president, Mark McAlister; PPM practice area lead (PAL), Vickie Sanchez; or community of practice (CoP) lead, Jack Oliva.